What will happen to hurricanes in the next few years?

Hurricanes are tropical cyclones that form in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. They are characterized by strong winds, torrential rains and storm surges.

Scientists agree that hurricanes will become more intense and frequent in the coming years due to climate change. Rising global temperatures are causing oceans to warm, providing more energy for tropical storms to develop and strengthen. Additionally, climate change is altering wind and rain patterns, which may make them more unpredictable.

According to predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will have between 12 and 17 named storms, with the possibility of up to 9 hurricanes. Of these, between 3 and 6 could be category 3 or higher.

For the next few years, NOAA predicts that the Atlantic hurricane season will have between 14 and 21 named storms, with the possibility of up to 10 hurricanes. Of these, between 3 and 6 could be category 3 or higher.

These predictions indicate that hurricanes will be an increasing risk to coastal communities in the coming years. It is important for people who live in these areas to be prepared and know what to do in the event of a disaster.

Impacts of the most intense and frequent hurricanes

  • Damage to infrastructure: They can cause significant damage to infrastructure such as roads, bridges and buildings. This can hinder disaster response and recovery for affected communities.
  • Loss of human life: They can cause drowning deaths, injuries and illnesses.
  • Movement of people: They can force people to leave their homes, which can cause social and economic disruption.
  • Water and air pollution: They can contaminate water and air, which can cause public health problems.
  • Damage to agriculture and fishing: They can damage crops and fisheries, which can lead to food shortages and economic losses.

Measures to reduce risks

There are a number of measures people can take to reduce the risks, including:

  • Develop emergency plans: Emergency plans should include information on how to prepare for a hurricane, how to evacuate in an emergency, and how to recover after a hurricane.
  • Have an emergency kit ready: Emergency kits should include food, water, medications, supplies first aid and other essential supplies.
  • Learn about hurricane risks in your area: People should be informed about hurricane risks in their area, including areas prone to flooding and storm surge.
  • Support organizations working to reduce hurricane risks: Organizations working to reduce hurricane risks can help communities prepare for and recover from hurricanes.

migration

Hurricanes can cause both short- and long-term migration. In the short term, people may be displaced from their homes due to hurricane damage, such as flooding, landslides, or fires. These people may take shelter with family or friends, or they may be evacuated to temporary shelters.

In the long term, they can lead to migration if people decide not to return home after the hurricane has passed. This may be because their homes have been destroyed or damaged beyond repair, or because people do not have the means to rebuild them. In some cases, people may decide to migrate to other countries in search of better economic opportunities or security.

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), hurricanes are one of the main causes of migration in the world. In 2022, Eta and Iota caused the displacement of more than 3 million people in Central America.

The IOM estimates that the number of people displaced by hurricanes could increase significantly in the coming years due to climate change. Climate change is causing them to be more intense and frequent, increasing the risk of displacement.